I made a few calls to investors this week to chew the fat over what might be for the next 12 months. One asked " has the patient got a pulse Mark?" Immediately the salesman in me offered my enthusiasm as to how the patient did indeed have a pulse and was on the road to some sort of recovery.
Later that night I sat and thought about this question further and now offer my prognosis for the latest victim of the world economy.
Last October the A & E Ward at Dubai General Real Estate Hospital became flooded overnight with casualties. With blood on the floor real estate agents spent the next 6 weeks talking to anxious sellers who in the main were looking for the exit door. Big problem was there were only sellers active and literally no buyers. There was a point where I thought 'that's it' the buyers are never coming back.
By December the sellers had all burnt themselves out and the market although seriously wounded was not about to give up and die.Buyers were ringing, asking for discounts and starting to make a few offers. There is only one thing to note about these buyers and that is the fact that without exception they are all cash buyers.
Only cash I thought. This is still serious! My business deals with the cream of dubai property with average prices in excess of a million dollars and i am going to need to find enough cash buyers to blance the books. Not going to happen was my immediate thought. We need help or the pulse will fade.
Fast forward to January and the doctor is hopeful of a good recovery based on recent signs. Still only cash buyers, usually with heavy Russian accents but this is the month for the Russians to come to Dubai and take advantage of the Shopping discounts and so far property is on the shopping list.
January is already looking to be a good month and one shoreline property although well priced has had 14 viewings and 3 offers. Sale agreed in excess of the asking price and to me a sure sign that the patient has a pulse.
I know that one swallow doesn't make a summer but the phones are ringing with buyers again and the doctor is optimistic of a slow but steady recovery.Finance and a few more Russians will also help but this particular property doctor will be happier when there is a broader mix of buyers entering the market.
Well Dr Markolov, - you do realise that you will now have created a rush of 20 or more shoreline owners calling you this week; seeing if it is their unit with the offers on it!
ReplyDeleteI still think it is amazing that the properties are selling at all considering there is so little 'normal' lending around and still so much 'world uncertainty' - and local lending is still so expensive too. I think this is great news.
The fact that buyer interest is increasing (albeit from a low base of none!*!*) is quite amazing.
The fact that people are 'buying' at this time, & with cash, at a time when cash is so very precious, does show the continuing pull and attraction of Dubai, perhaps at a time when some of those more 'used to it' had been beginning to question the emirate a little.
It does suggest the patient will be 'up and at it again' in the future; no predictions from me as to when as yet but anytime prior to summer for a real hardening of prices & turn (however small) would be really positive. I hope those ruskies make a fortune buying now!
It looks like re-hab in Moscow - but its better that no re-hab at all - and soon enough no doubt, a world tour will be back on the agenda!