Cancel New Years Eve!!
Yes! You read it right first time. On the 31st December the Boss has posted on his website that New years Eve is cancelled. Is money that tight that a few fireworks leftover from the Atlantis opening will be too expensive!
No, it is in respect of the troubles in Palestine where the battle between Israel and Palestine rumbles on violently. Not going any further into this political hot potato!
Still, the hotels have been unusually quiet over the November and December period with the Burj running some nights at 15% occupancy. Yesterday was the first full night as all the revellers flocked in for New Year fun! "Welcome back Mr Yuri we have saved your favourite room and cancelled the Best party of the Year. Have a wonderful stay with us!Hope to see you next year???"
For any of you with a warped sense of humour like me I recommend a trip to the Grosevenor House Lobby where all hell is breaking loose and the poor staff are probably wishing they were in Gaza where there will be at least a chance of a cease fire at midnight!
Property
Considering it is Xmas we have been blessed this year some very good activity. Sales are up on last year and the prospects are looking good for 2009.
The prices are terrible i admit but we will see these build over 2009 as the market normalises. If people want to sell at last January prices there are cash buyers out there.
We have seen shorelines sell this week and had 3 separate offers on Signature villas with a Garden home crossing the line too.
The market is quite busy and I am confident that the next level of buyers will start to enter the market and at this point the market will stabilise.
In the New Year we are going to add a stats page to the website which will show current market prices for all property areas we deal with. Most people will not believe the figures we publish but i can assure you they will be based on actual transactions so worth a look.
Finally..
2008 has been a very strange year for us all in property. With the market going crazy between January and May the big mistake was to ignore what was happening elsewhere in the world and think that we were in some safe little bubble we liked to call Dubai. Reality well and truly set in after Ramadan when it became clear that the bubble had burst and after only 8-12 weeks prices are now 35% lower and even lower if you need to sell very quickly.
Markets always fluctuate and now the initial shock is over there are people re entering at more affordable levels.
I would like to see 2009 show us a period of calm where the whole market can take stock and act more responsibly for the future.As market forces always prevail in the end you can count on the next 12 months being steady with some good opportunities to purchase some excellent real estate at discounted prices.Have a drink and come back next year for the bargains.
Happy New Year to you all!! ( those of us in Dubai tonight may have a small problem.. someone spat their dummy out this morning and the party is cancelled!)
Id heard a rumour that he was miffed at the offers he was getting on his 2 Garden homes!? - and that the bank wouldn't give him the loan on the shortfall for the Villa he was trying to upgrade to!?! - I think this is the real reason NYE is cancelled.
ReplyDeleteHopefully next years party will be back 'on' when prices bottom out sometime (early 'ish' i hope) in 09 and then stability and eventually those 'shoots of recovery' become apparent. Lending still needs to come back on line - and I think this will be when the bottom is established. If the 'bottom' is reached & set with only cash buyers around, before lending emerges, then we could then see a nice jump when lending does return.
People do overshoot negatively in their thinking & fears when in panic mode. We have certainly been in panic mode and over the coming months, when people begin to accept the new world situation, a new start / cycle / spring / New years eve party - call it what you will, will begin.
So hopefully, sometime in 09, confidence will begin to return in major markets, and this will filter down to Emerging Markets (EM's), and those EM's that are well placed will, as always, show some of the greatest returns on investment. Dubai property in iconic developments such as the Palm are now showing outstanding value and those cash buyers buying completed property on Palm today at 1700 psf to 2000 psf will be laughing later in 2009, and probably already are. With needed infrastructure projects continuing, Dubai should be as well placed as most EM's, indeed any market, to take advantage of the post-doom period that will follow - so lets drink to that - albeit not tonight!?!
I'm not a bottom man generally - but i'll be happy when this one passes by!
ReplyDeleteI hope to see the bottom in H1 09 and then we march on from there... I hope too 'they' start lending soon.. this will assist... but there is alot of broke investors to get out the market and these, and the slack they leave, will slow things... luckily it appears that these 'distressed sales' are wanting / having to sell at prices much lower than most property holders are prepared to sell for - so once they go (& I know there are lots of them) then the market will get pulled upwards.
Cheers E & T for all the help and support through 2008 - best wishes to all - I certainly won't be going anywhere else for my property advice and transactions in '09!
(Sorry - I know you were hoping i would - but im not!!)