Can you feel a Pulse?

I made a few calls to investors this week to chew the fat over what might be for the next 12 months. One asked " has the patient got a pulse Mark?" Immediately the salesman in me offered my enthusiasm as to how the patient did indeed have a pulse and was on the road to some sort of recovery.
Later that night I sat and thought about this question further and now offer my prognosis for the latest victim of the world economy.
Last October the A & E Ward at Dubai General Real Estate Hospital became flooded overnight with casualties. With blood on the floor real estate agents spent the next 6 weeks talking to anxious sellers who in the main were looking for the exit door. Big problem was there were only sellers active and literally no buyers. There was a point where I thought 'that's it' the buyers are never coming back.
By December the sellers had all burnt themselves out and the market although seriously wounded was not about to give up and die.Buyers were ringing, asking for discounts and starting to make a few offers. There is only one thing to note about these buyers and that is the fact that without exception they are all cash buyers.
Only cash I thought. This is still serious! My business deals with the cream of dubai property with average prices in excess of a million dollars and i am going to need to find enough cash buyers to blance the books. Not going to happen was my immediate thought. We need help or the pulse will fade.
Fast forward to January and the doctor is hopeful of a good recovery based on recent signs. Still only cash buyers, usually with heavy Russian accents but this is the month for the Russians to come to Dubai and take advantage of the Shopping discounts and so far property is on the shopping list.
January is already looking to be a good month and one shoreline property although well priced has had 14 viewings and 3 offers. Sale agreed in excess of the asking price and to me a sure sign that the patient has a pulse.

I know that one swallow doesn't make a summer but the phones are ringing with buyers again and the doctor is optimistic of a slow but steady recovery.Finance and a few more Russians will also help but this particular property doctor will be happier when there is a broader mix of buyers entering the market.

Cancel New Years Eve!!



Yes! You read it right first time. On the 31st December the Boss has posted on his website that New years Eve is cancelled. Is money that tight that a few fireworks leftover from the Atlantis opening will be too expensive!

No, it is in respect of the troubles in Palestine where the battle between Israel and Palestine rumbles on violently. Not going any further into this political hot potato!



Still, the hotels have been unusually quiet over the November and December period with the Burj running some nights at 15% occupancy. Yesterday was the first full night as all the revellers flocked in for New Year fun! "Welcome back Mr Yuri we have saved your favourite room and cancelled the Best party of the Year. Have a wonderful stay with us!Hope to see you next year???"



For any of you with a warped sense of humour like me I recommend a trip to the Grosevenor House Lobby where all hell is breaking loose and the poor staff are probably wishing they were in Gaza where there will be at least a chance of a cease fire at midnight!



Property



Considering it is Xmas we have been blessed this year some very good activity. Sales are up on last year and the prospects are looking good for 2009.

The prices are terrible i admit but we will see these build over 2009 as the market normalises. If people want to sell at last January prices there are cash buyers out there.

We have seen shorelines sell this week and had 3 separate offers on Signature villas with a Garden home crossing the line too.

The market is quite busy and I am confident that the next level of buyers will start to enter the market and at this point the market will stabilise.
In the New Year we are going to add a stats page to the website which will show current market prices for all property areas we deal with. Most people will not believe the figures we publish but i can assure you they will be based on actual transactions so worth a look.

Finally..

2008 has been a very strange year for us all in property. With the market going crazy between January and May the big mistake was to ignore what was happening elsewhere in the world and think that we were in some safe little bubble we liked to call Dubai. Reality well and truly set in after Ramadan when it became clear that the bubble had burst and after only 8-12 weeks prices are now 35% lower and even lower if you need to sell very quickly.
Markets always fluctuate and now the initial shock is over there are people re entering at more affordable levels.
I would like to see 2009 show us a period of calm where the whole market can take stock and act more responsibly for the future.As market forces always prevail in the end you can count on the next 12 months being steady with some good opportunities to purchase some excellent real estate at discounted prices.Have a drink and come back next year for the bargains.

Happy New Year to you all!! ( those of us in Dubai tonight may have a small problem.. someone spat their dummy out this morning and the party is cancelled!)